Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa39a…980d other 655 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized +$23 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%491W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$70
14 days−$1
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$80
world 12% +$23
politics 10% −$1
tech 8% −$198
finance 7% −$86
culture 4% +$69
crypto 3% −$70
sports 3% +$35
economics 1% +$16
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.3% -5.7% 83% 0% -4.7%
≤30d 112 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 352 -0.1% -9.6% 84% 1% -8.8%
all 639 -0.5% -10.0% 77% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,660
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses491 / 148
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)639 / 655
History coverage145d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 639 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $222 $223 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $218 $219 +$1 (+1%)
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $197 $196 −$2 (-1%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $185 $187 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? No 91¢ 93¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+2%)
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 96¢ 98¢ $105 $107 +$2 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? No 95¢ 90¢ $110 $104 −$6 (-5%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 96¢ 93¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? No 96¢ 75¢ $91 $71 −$20 (-22%)
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 93¢ 44¢ $123 $57 −$65 (-53%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeting? No 96¢ 79¢ $47 $38 −$8 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 14¢ $69 $11 −$58 (-85%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Jun 13 $218 +$7 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $108 +$9 +8%
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? Jun 11 $354 +$13 +4%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $226 +$18 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $77 +$5 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $138 +$10 +8%
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 09 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $65 +$5 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 08 $17 $0 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 07 $59 −$6 -10%
Will one person dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 07 $90 −$9 -10%
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? Jun 07 $59 $0 -1%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? Jun 07 $181 −$12 -7%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 07 $188 −$9 -5%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? Jun 07 $244 −$15 -6%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 07 $40 −$5 -12%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Jun 07 $59 −$3 -5%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $132 +$6 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $26 +$1 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $187 +$11 +6%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $233 +$7 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $602 +$57 +10%
Will the US lose jobs in May? Jun 05 $207 +$12 +6%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 05 $58 +$3 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $226 +$13 +6%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 04 $11 $0 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 3? Jun 04 $230 +$16 +7%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Jason Reynolds be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 04 $0 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 $0 +4%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 04 $50 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $113 +$7 +6%
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this w Jun 03 $64 +$5 +7%
Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $45 +$3 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 3? Jun 03 $45 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $233 +$9 +4%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $172 +$8 +5%
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $90 +$5 +5%
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? Jun 02 $43 +$2 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? Jun 02 $213 +$15 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 1? Jun 02 $230 +$9 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 01 $199 −$198 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? Jun 01 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $181 1h
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 3 BUY No 96¢ $222 12h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 92¢ $32 36h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 91¢ $79 36h
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $225 36h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $185 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $117 2d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $63 3d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $36 3d
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? BUY No 96¢ $91 3d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $110 3d
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? SELL No 100¢ $367 3d
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $137 4d
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $39 4d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $64 4d
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 96¢ $105 4d
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $0 4d
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 100¢ $0 4d
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 96¢ $87 4d
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 99¢ $244 4d
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $74 5d
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 5d
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $218 5d
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $218 5d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeti BUY No 96¢ $28 5d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeti BUY No 95¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,660.19 · official $1,660.09 (match) · 2314 history records