Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa39b…5ddd world 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%21W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$10
other 17% +$5
politics 16% −$3
sports 13% −$11
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 30 -0.5% -9.9% 37% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 1% -9.9%
all 91 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -10.2%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses21 / 70
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage530d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 −$3 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $52 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $71 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $55 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $31 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $36 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $17 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $106 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $68 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $35 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $103 −$5 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $17 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 18 $4 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $12 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $12 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 31m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $30 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $33 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $22 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $17 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 433 history records