trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 7¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+40%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 27¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+16%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 92¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 30¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-23%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$2 | +161% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$6 | +535% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +198.8% | +170.3% | 67% | 67% | +174.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +198.8% | +170.3% | 67% | 67% | +174.3% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +198.8% | +170.3% | 67% | 67% | +174.3% |
| all | 3 | +198.8% | +170.3% | 67% | 67% | +174.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +170.3% | 67% | +174.3% |
| 10% | +144.4% | 67% | +148.1% |
| 15% | +120.8% | 67% | +124.1% |
| 20% | +99.2% | 67% | +102.1% |