Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa39c…08bc other 28 markets active 4h ago coverage 44d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26,417 (+10%) realized +$36,630 · open −$10,213
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$9,744per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$65,752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$708
world 22% +$3,746
sports 5% +$1,323
crypto 4% +$475
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 25% +7.5%
≤30d 16 -6.8% -15.7% 75% 38% -0.2%
≤90d 18 +21.6% +10.0% 78% 39% +0.7%
all 18 +21.6% +10.0% 78% 39% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.0% 39% +0.7%
10% -0.5% 28% -8.9%
15% ← realistic here -10.1% 22% -17.7%
20% -18.9% 17% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$9,750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +54% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
74.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,248 vs −$607 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.2 per $1 lost it wins $7.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$65,752
Realized+$36,630
Unrealized−$10,213
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions10
Markets (closed)18 / 28
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$9,744
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26,328 $22,198 −$4,129 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $16,256 $15,125 −$1,131 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14,293 $12,015 −$2,278 (-16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $9,610 $9,685 +$75 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,450 $2,925 +$475 (+19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,200 $1,450 −$750 (-34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,169 $1,216 −$953 (-44%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,720 $750 −$970 (-56%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $900 $350 −$550 (-61%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $18,330 +$334 +2%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,836 −$1,436 -78%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $8,895 +$325 +4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $18,572 +$9,742 +52%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $712 +$88 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6,760 +$22 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44,289 +$1,875 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9,963 +$927 +9%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $522 −$522 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $716 +$284 +40%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $746 +$254 +34%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,015 +$985 +97%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $893 +$107 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 30 $9,750 +$230 +2%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $256 −$256 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. USA May 28 $215 −$215 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $9,315 +$685 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $330 +$1,620 +491%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $967 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,014 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $711 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $84 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 37h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 37h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,269 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,751.89 · official $65,751.99 (match) · 3500 history records