Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa39d…64fb other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1
world 24% −$1
politics 16% +$1
sports 11% +$5
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 44 +0.1% -9.5% 23% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage256d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 30¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $19 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Bowling vs. UMass Dec 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $8 +$3 +35%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $49 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $24 +$1 +3%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 04 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $19 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $7 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $10 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $22 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $31 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $5 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $27 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $32 19d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $31 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $31 21d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 208d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $15 209d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $15 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL No 21¢ $11 209d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.47 · official $30.66 (match) · 245 history records