Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa39f…a15b
crypto · 215 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$896 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$896 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$896
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses75 / 139
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage10d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day110.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 214 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$572
14 days−$896
30 days−$896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$2 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $109 −$20 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $84 −$2 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $893 −$134 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $272 −$50 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$31 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $147 −$36 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $528 −$118 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $430 +$41 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $231 −$9 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $183 −$50 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $260 −$92 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$55 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $313 −$16 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $416 +$39 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $309 +$56 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $322 +$23 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $212 −$50 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $106 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$4 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$10 +143%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 $0 +3%
Will Tim Cook say "Macbook" 10+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 event Jun 08 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W Jun 08 $49 +$8 +15%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $17 −$10 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $18 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 07 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$868
sports 3% −$64
weather 1% +$31
tech 1% +$7
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $7 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -17.5% -25.4% 40% 29% -21.6%
≤30d 214 -29.0% -35.7% 35% 27% -24.4%
≤90d 214 -29.0% -35.7% 35% 27% -24.4%
all 214 -29.0% -35.7% 35% 27% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.7% 27% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 21% -31.6%
15% -47.5% 15% -38.2%
20% -52.7% 12% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.08 · official $5.08 (match) · 1180 history records