Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3a1…c2bc world 13 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-34%) realized −$29 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days+$34
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$77
other 4% −$10
politics 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -68.4% -71.4% 0% 0% -54.3%
≤30d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 25% -27.4%
≤90d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 25% -27.4%
all 8 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 25% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 25% -27.4%
10% -20.3% 25% -34.3%
15% -28.0% 25% -40.7%
20% -35.1% 25% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage22d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $80 $50 −$30 (-38%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No $8 $3 −$5 (-65%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-69%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 30¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$3 +114%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $15 +$43 +283%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $55 −$38 -70%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $30 −$4 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $20 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $13 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No $5 6d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No $3 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $5 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $5 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? SELL Yes 91¢ $58 9d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 10d
Kurds declare independence from Iran? BUY Yes $1 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $17 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $10 22d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $30 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $10 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes $6 25d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? BUY Yes $5 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $10 25d
Kurds declare independence from Iran? BUY Yes $5 25d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.95 · official $55.95 (match) · 31 history records