trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -68.4% | -71.4% | 0% | 0% | -54.3% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 25% | 25% | -27.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 25% | 25% | -27.4% |
| all | 8 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 25% | 25% | -27.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.9% | 25% | -27.4% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 25% | -34.3% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 25% | -40.7% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 25% | -46.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 16¢ | $80 | $50 | −$30 (-38%) |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | No | 2¢ | 1¢ | $8 | $3 | −$5 (-65%) |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $6 | $2 | −$4 (-69%) |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-66%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$7 | -37% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | Jun 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $3 | +$3 | +114% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 22? | Jun 07 | $15 | +$43 | +283% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 26 | $55 | −$38 | -70% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 25 | $30 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | May 23 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? | May 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |