Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3a9…0e2f
sports · 5 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$2 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 35¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 55% −$4
other 45% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 25% +7.3%
≤30d 4 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 25% +7.3%
≤90d 4 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 25% +7.3%
all 4 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 25% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.7% 25% +7.3%
10% -57.2% 25% -3.0%
15% -61.4% 25% -12.3%
20% -65.2% 25% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $1.98 (match) · 7 history records