Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3ab…c3e6 politics 54 markets active 2d ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$4
politics 19% −$1
other 14% −$9
crypto 10% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 5% +$3
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -8.5%
all 54 -2.4% -11.7% 39% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage263d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $61 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 30 $1 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Oct 31 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 31 $3 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 27 $14 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? Oct 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Oct 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $1 $0 -28%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $35 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $53 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $48 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $49 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $49 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $35 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $35 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $49 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $49 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $7 198d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 198d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $4 200d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records