Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3ad…6866
other · 313 markets active 13h ago
0.0score
−$203,331 -172%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63,215 · open −$1,391
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 499 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1,550
14 days−$22,871
30 days−$31,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 80¢ $18 $471 +$453 (+2500%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 79¢ $8 $446 +$438 (+5679%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ $18 $144 +$126 (+701%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 68¢ $5 $102 +$97 (+2008%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 17¢ $8 $95 +$87 (+1133%)
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $10 $75 +$65 (+618%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 84¢ 81¢ $74 $71 −$3 (-4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ $3 $67 +$64 (+2431%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 97¢ $11 $52 +$42 (+385%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Seattle Seahawks next? Yes $20 $46 +$26 (+133%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next? Yes $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes $50 $26 −$23 (-47%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ $2 $26 +$24 (+1126%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 17¢ $71 $24 −$47 (-66%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes 17¢ $96 $21 −$75 (-78%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? No $263 $21 −$242 (-92%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $8 $21 +$13 (+167%)
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? No $317 $20 −$297 (-94%)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 12¢ 63¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+449%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Baltimore Ravens next? Yes $21 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 22¢ $2 $12 +$11 (+710%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 13¢ 35¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+168%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+482%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $0 −$1 -264%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $30 −$23 -77%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 me Jun 08 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $1,278 −$519 -41%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $986 −$985 -100%
Will Courtney Gill be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will Todd Woods be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Kelly B. Walsh be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 08 $12 $0 +3%
Will Nancy Dyson be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,570 +$2,417 +68%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $314 −$311 -99%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 29 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 29 $47 −$45 -96%
Will three people dissent the April Fed decision? May 29 $106 −$104 -98%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $314 −$311 -99%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $332 −$329 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 29 $1,290 −$1,111 -86%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $978 −$798 -82%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 29 $1,117 −$1,113 -100%
Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 29 $7 $0 +6%
Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%? May 29 $6 +$14 +257%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.3%? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%? May 29 $21 $0 +2%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29? May 29 $553 −$530 -96%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 28? May 29 $544 −$294 -54%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30? May 29 $564 −$155 -27%
Will no one dissent the April Fed decision? May 29 $130 −$103 -79%
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision? May 29 $135 −$107 -79%
Will two people dissent the April Fed decision? May 29 $126 −$98 -78%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market May 29 $54 +$2 +4%
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 29 $134 −$71 -53%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? May 29 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $66 +$2 +3%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 29 $52 +$17 +33%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 29 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 29 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 29 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 29 $2,177 −$1,874 -86%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 May 29 $233 −$233 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 2 May 29 $186 −$185 -99%
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 29 $47 −$45 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 35% −$35,194
economics 22% −$10,966
sports 12% −$6,573
other 11% −$5,561
world 11% −$5,367
politics 4% −$2,699
crypto 4% +$2,417
weather 1% −$486
culture 1% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $25 13h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 13h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 14h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 14h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 14h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 14h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 15h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $66 28h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $24 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $40 6d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No $15 6d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $13 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $16 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $13 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $60 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No $83 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No $82 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No $66 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No $37 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No $47 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5,987 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $472 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $459 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $232 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $1 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $235 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $500 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $500 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -40.3% -45.9% 50% 0% -68.0%
≤30d 77 -39.3% -45.1% 38% 9% -65.3%
≤90d 235 -13.3% -21.6% 30% 16% -64.9%
all 235 -13.3% -21.6% 30% 16% -64.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 16% -64.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 14% -68.3%
15% -35.9% 11% -71.4%
20% -42.2% 10% -74.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,600.92 · official $2,538.76 · 3500 history records