Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3af…8899 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-4%) realized −$35 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$77
other 46% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-67.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -64.3% -67.7% 29% 14% -32.9%
≤30d 7 -64.3% -67.7% 29% 14% -32.9%
≤90d 7 -64.3% -67.7% 29% 14% -32.9%
all 7 -64.3% -67.7% 29% 14% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.7% 14% -32.9%
10% -70.8% 14% -39.3%
15% -73.6% 14% -45.1%
20% -76.2% 0% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 62¢ $53 $62 +$10 (+18%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 58¢ $49 $58 +$10 (+19%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 52¢ $55 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $63 −$62 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $54 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $50 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $56 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $11 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $10 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 42h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $5 42h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.64 · official $174.64 (match) · 15 history records