Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A3 0xa3b0…b7eb crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate87%76W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$8
politics 28% −$5
sports 11% −$3
economics 11% −$2
other 6% $0
world 5% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 7% -9.4%
all 87 +0.6% -8.9% 87% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses76 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage245d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 12? Jun 19 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 08 $108 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 04 $2 $0 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 04 $2 $0 +8%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in May? Jun 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? Jun 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? May 05 $112 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? Apr 26 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 20? Apr 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 09 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $109 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 20? Mar 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? Mar 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 14? Mar 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 7? Mar 11 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 6? Mar 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 22? Feb 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on February 10? Feb 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 8? Feb 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 100¢ $3 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $114 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $114 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $108 15d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $2 32d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 90¢ $2 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 42d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? BUY No 87¢ $4 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $103 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $98 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $101 61d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 61d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $105 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $106 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 68d
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 73d
Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $109 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $109 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $102 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $104 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $101 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $102 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $101 92d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.16 · official $112.16 (match) · 181 history records