Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3b4…1797 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$38 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$30
politics 22% −$8
economics 6% −$2
sports 4% $0
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -5.2% -14.2% 8% 5% -9.6%
all 110 -5.2% -14.2% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage86d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $182 $180 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $368 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $352 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $353 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $329 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $294 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $298 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $549 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $274 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $296 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $303 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 28 $286 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 26 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $300 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $308 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $823 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $303 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $290 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 6h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $182 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 12d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 13d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $86 21d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $45 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $45 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $118 24d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.41 · official $180.41 (match) · 317 history records