Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3b4…39d5
crypto · 15 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$53 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 3 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+64%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$86 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% +$58
world 5% $0
sports 4% +$10
other 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 45m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 50% +5.9%
≤30d 12 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 50% +5.9%
≤90d 12 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 50% +5.9%
all 12 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 50% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 50% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 25% -4.2%
15% -31.7% 17% -13.5%
20% -38.4% 17% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.13 · official $39.13 (match) · 33 history records