Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3b7…9f78
crypto · 19 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$6 -62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $8 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 49% +$4
other 31% +$4
politics 16% −$1
sports 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.5% +0.9% 72% 61% -6.2%
≤30d 18 +11.5% +0.9% 72% 61% -6.2%
≤90d 18 +11.5% +0.9% 72% 61% -6.2%
all 18 +11.5% +0.9% 72% 61% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 61% -6.2%
10% -8.8% 50% -15.1%
15% -17.6% 39% -23.3%
20% -25.6% 22% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.83 · official $10.83 (match) · 49 history records