Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3b9…a5c2 other 12 markets active 9h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$367 (-31%) realized −$367 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$267
sports 18% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 42% -38.2%
≤30d 12 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 42% -38.2%
≤90d 12 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 42% -38.2%
all 12 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 42% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 42% -38.2%
10% -40.7% 33% -44.1%
15% -46.4% 33% -49.5%
20% -51.7% 25% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$90 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $106 −$104 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$30 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $213 +$36 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $212 −$211 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$101 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $106 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $83 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $213 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $212 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $212 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records