Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3b9…ad06
crypto · 493 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$887 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$881 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$881
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses226 / 260
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions7
Markets (closed)486 / 493
History coverage68d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 7 History 486 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$77
14 days−$167
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? No 72¢ 80¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+12%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 96¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+53%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 46¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 57¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 48¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $9 +$6 +63%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 05 $5 +$4 +73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 05 $9 +$34 +361%
Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -84%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $1 +$1 +74%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$2 -17%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $47 −$26 -54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +15%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 01 $15 +$13 +91%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +21%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $7 −$4 -66%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $94 −$91 -97%
Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9AM ET May 31 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5AM ET May 31 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3AM ET May 31 $10 −$5 -50%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $1 +$2 +132%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) May 31 $21 +$85 +409%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $4 +$6 +163%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $6 +$10 +178%
Moise Kouame vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $2 +$2 +103%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $3 +$1 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $7 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET May 29 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winner May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $10 +$5 +52%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $5 +$4 +88%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $1 +$1 +46%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs May 28 $3 +$2 +88%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $2 +$1 +84%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $2 +$1 +72%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1 +$1 +58%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5 May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 27% +$460
crypto 25% −$327
world 18% −$88
other 17% −$751
weather 5% −$106
politics 4% −$79
tech 2% $0
finance 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $2 9m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 70¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 38¢ $14 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 38¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $1 6d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $2 6d
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha BUY SwimTrek Blue 60¢ $1 6d
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha BUY SwimTrek Blue 60¢ $1 6d
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha BUY SwimTrek Blue 60¢ $2 6d
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha BUY SwimTrek Blue 60¢ $5 6d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 60¢ $38 7d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $2 7d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $2 7d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $0 7d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $0 7d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $0 7d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $0 7d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $0 7d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL No 80¢ $2 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 10d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 57¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 57¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 57¢ $1 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 35¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Under 21¢ $9 11d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $4 11d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $10 11d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $18 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -26.4% -33.4% 50% 50% -74.9%
≤30d 111 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 47% -20.8%
≤90d 486 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 31% -19.1%
all 486 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 31% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 31% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 28% -26.8%
15% -30.3% 25% -33.9%
20% -37.2% 19% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.03 · official $34.03 (match) · 3500 history records