Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa3c2…4d6e sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$234 (-1%) realized −$125 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,632per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5,091now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$396
other 19% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.7% -22.8% 54% 54% -11.1%
≤30d 13 -14.7% -22.8% 54% 54% -11.1%
≤90d 13 -14.7% -22.8% 54% 54% -11.1%
all 13 -14.7% -22.8% 54% 54% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 54% -11.1%
10% -30.2% 54% -19.6%
15% -37.0% 46% -27.4%
20% -43.1% 38% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$980 vs −$1,205 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5,091
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,632
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 Over 84¢ 82¢ $4,500 $4,398 −$102 (-2%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 38¢ $700 $693 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2,524 +$1,152 +46%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $3,017 +$681 +23%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $2,217 +$1,206 +54%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,531 +$1,707 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,216 −$1,200 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $758 −$750 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $456 +$306 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,528 −$1,500 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,015 +$983 +97%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $286 −$280 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,523 −$1,500 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,516 +$828 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $713 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4,521 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $2,524 19h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $3,017 36h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,423 36h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2,217 41h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2,018 43h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. BUY 37¢ $275 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,531 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,216 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $758 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $762 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $456 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,528 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,998 3d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $286 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,523 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1,516 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,091.09 · official $5,091.09 (match) · 24 history records