Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A3 0xa3c2…bd4c crypto 616 markets active 15h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-3%) realized −$135 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%250W / 362L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$54
14 days−$147
30 days−$806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$126
sports 16% −$135
other 1% −$11
world 0% −$11
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 32% -28.6%
≤30d 438 -36.7% -42.7% 30% 26% -40.3%
≤90d 612 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 36% -16.2%
all 612 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 36% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 36% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 33% -24.2%
15% -32.3% 30% -31.6%
20% -38.9% 24% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses250 / 362
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)612 / 616
History coverage49d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 612 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 54¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+85%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +39%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $3 14h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.44 · official $10.44 (match) · 1722 history records