trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -16.4% | -24.4% | 40% | 40% | -15.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 50% | 38% | +3.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 56% | 44% | +4.0% |
| all | 162 | -1.6% | -10.9% | 51% | 49% | -15.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.9% | 49% | -15.7% |
| 10% | -19.5% | 45% | -23.7% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 43% | -31.1% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 35% | -37.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 15¢ | $186 | $237 | +$51 (+28%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $50 | $38 | −$12 (-24%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? | Jun 27 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 26 | $102 | +$73 | +72% |
| Spread: Belgium (-2.5) | Jun 21 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Spread: Japan (-1.5) | Jun 21 | $102 | +$148 | +146% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $202 | +$120 | +60% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Jun 19 | $1 | −$1 | -72% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Apr 24 | $200 | +$37 | +19% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET | Mar 01 | $30 | −$30 | -98% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET | Mar 01 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | Mar 01 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Mar 01 | $15 | +$7 | +44% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | Mar 01 | $30 | −$5 | -17% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | Mar 01 | $10 | +$15 | +150% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | Feb 28 | $150 | +$230 | +154% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Feb 09 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | Feb 08 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | Jan 26 | $400 | +$246 | +61% |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | Jan 26 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Rams vs. Bears | Jan 19 | $400 | +$225 | +56% |
| Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? | Jan 18 | $219 | +$404 | +184% |
| Texans vs. Patriots | Jan 18 | $700 | +$385 | +55% |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-18? | Jan 18 | $100 | −$24 | -24% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? | Jan 18 | $600 | −$600 | -100% |
| Bills vs. Broncos | Jan 18 | $400 | −$254 | -64% |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Jan 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Jan 13 | $100 | +$186 | +186% |
| Texans vs. Steelers | Jan 13 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Lions vs. Bears | Jan 12 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5 | Jan 12 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Bills vs. Jaguars | Jan 12 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Chargers vs. Patriots | Jan 12 | $550 | +$296 | +54% |
| 49ers vs. Eagles | Jan 12 | $100 | +$233 | +233% |
| Packers vs. Bears | Jan 11 | $150 | +$230 | +153% |
| Rams vs. Panthers | Jan 11 | $150 | −$18 | -12% |
| Spread: Rams (-10.5) | Jan 10 | $18 | +$10 | +59% |
| Ravens vs. Steelers | Jan 05 | $100 | +$186 | +186% |
| Dolphins vs. Patriots | Jan 04 | $1,500 | +$184 | +12% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | Jan 04 | $150 | +$22 | +15% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Texans vs. Chargers | Jan 04 | $240 | −$191 | -80% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Jan 04 | $350 | −$350 | -100% |
| Titans vs. Jaguars | Jan 04 | $1,000 | +$138 | +14% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? | Jan 04 | $200 | +$192 | +96% |
| Jaguars vs. Colts | Jan 04 | $300 | +$148 | +49% |
| Bears vs. 49ers | Dec 29 | $100 | +$52 | +52% |
| Eagles vs. Bills | Dec 28 | $150 | +$158 | +105% |
| Steelers vs. Browns | Dec 28 | $450 | −$314 | -70% |
| Patriots vs. Jets | Dec 28 | $1,632 | +$207 | +13% |