Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3c6…48ff world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$3
other 9% +$1
politics 7% +$1
crypto 7% −$3
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -1.7% -11.1% 21% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -1.7% -11.1% 21% 0% -10.1%
all 40 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage468d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $21 −$5 -25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $77 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Starmer out before July? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 24 $9 −$3 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? May 20 $9 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ding Liren win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders be drafted 1st and 2nd? Apr 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 18 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $10 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $30 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $30 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $7 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $24 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $7 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $33 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $39 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records