Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3c7…3c77
crypto · 40 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$63 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$76 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$166
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 4 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-12%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $87 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$18 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$23 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$51 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$14 +91%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$7 -43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% +$43
other 15% −$92
sports 6% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $17 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $69 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $46 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $73 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $56 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $36 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $4 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 40% -16.0%
≤30d 35 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 40% -16.0%
≤90d 35 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 40% -16.0%
all 35 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 40% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 40% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 29% -24.0%
15% -35.6% 23% -31.3%
20% -41.9% 17% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.33 · official $266.34 · 110 history records