Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa3c8…7f5a politics 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-36%) realized −$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$161
sports 11% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 33% -49.6%
≤30d 3 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 33% -49.6%
≤90d 3 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 33% -49.6%
all 3 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 33% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 33% -49.6%
10% -44.5% 33% -54.4%
15% -49.8% 33% -58.8%
20% -54.8% 33% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$144 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage3d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Jun 20 $316 −$239 -76%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? Jun 20 $106 +$78 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $77 1h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $184 1h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $105 4h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $105 4h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $106 4h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records