Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa3ca…d665 weather 1097 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$708 (+1%) realized +$659 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%950W / 128L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$99
14 days+$130
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$594
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +1.4% -8.3% 92% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 329 +1.3% -8.4% 91% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 1078 +2.1% -7.6% 88% 4% -8.6%
all 1078 +2.1% -7.6% 88% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 4% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 1% -17.4%
15% -24.5% 1% -25.3%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$4,230
Realized+$659
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses950 / 128
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1078 / 1097
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1078 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $490 $495 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $459 $464 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $390 $400 +$10 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $357 $359 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? No 97¢ 97¢ $310 $310 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $280 $285 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $256 $259 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $247 $248 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $191 $192 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $186 $190 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $182 $185 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $155 $159 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 96¢ 98¢ $106 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? No 95¢ 97¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $518 −$53 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $113 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $223 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $304 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $190 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $302 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $83 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $136 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $158 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $142 −$14 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $253 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $394 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $229 +$8 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $156 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $152 −$26 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $87 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $155 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $318 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $237 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $301 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $284 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $137 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $214 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $278 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $384 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $217 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $143 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $228 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $203 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $286 −$20 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $108 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $271 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 98¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 76¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 76¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $53 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $84 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $98 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $95 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 95¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $198 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $57 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $92 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $63 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 93¢ $89 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $31 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $357 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $167 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,229.67 · official $4,229.67 (match) · 3500 history records