Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3cc…447c
crypto · 181 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5,020 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,879 · open −$2,249
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$7,152
Realized−$1,879
Unrealized−$2,249
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses120 / 55
Open positions6
Markets (closed)175 / 181
History coverage120d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 6 History 175 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$211
14 days−$211
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $3,850 $4,182 +$332 (+9%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $3,393 $1,972 −$1,420 (-42%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 15¢ $1,033 $348 −$685 (-66%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 19¢ $664 $292 −$372 (-56%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $210 $192 −$18 (-9%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $252 $167 −$85 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 46¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 46¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 46¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 47¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? No $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 46¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 47¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 46¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 47¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 46¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 47¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 20¢ $960 $0 −$960 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 46¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 47¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 46¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 46¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 46¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 46¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 46¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $518 −$212 -41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $150 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $180 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 21 $210 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $1,150 −$1,131 -98%
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $9 $0 -3%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 25 $20 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 25 $20 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Feb 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Feb 25 $158 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 25 $210 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $390 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $60 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 20 $20 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Feb 20 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 20 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 20 $78 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 20 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 19 $21 +$25 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 19 $79 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 19 $79 +$7 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 66% −$2,458
crypto 21% −$425
other 9% −$1,250
sports 2% $0
politics 1% +$3
world 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 21¢ $40 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes $41 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes $82 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,170 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 30¢ $682 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 57¢ $38 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 21¢ $54 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes $83 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes $129 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 32¢ $552 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 33¢ $1,023 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL Yes $307 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 62¢ $776 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 79¢ $5,507 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes $261 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 22¢ $100 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 50¢ $494 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 46¢ $5,109 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,034 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,023 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes $518 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,032 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 26¢ $515 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,034 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,016 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,025 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 71¢ $10,115 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.8% -23.0% 50% 50% -46.1%
≤30d 5 -5.9% -14.8% 80% 20% -27.4%
≤90d 6 -21.5% -29.0% 67% 17% -61.9%
all 175 -9.6% -18.2% 69% 5% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 5% -22.6%
10% -26.0% 3% -30.0%
15% -33.2% 2% -36.7%
20% -39.7% 2% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,152.16 · official $7,152.16 (match) · 1340 history records