Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3cc…00a4
other · 154 markets active 3h ago
4.5score
+$1,182 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,184 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$375
Realized+$1,184
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses43 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
Avg bet$1,300
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$15
14 days+$65
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $376 $375 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,482 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,659 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,537 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,191 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,339 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $3,332 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 07 $4,375 −$6 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $84 +$52 +62%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $57 +$65 +114%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,470 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $6,041 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $380 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $715 +$1 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,133 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,152 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,129 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $55 +$66 +119%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,806 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $2,446 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,671 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,668 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,953 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $3,100 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $3,249 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $5,147 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $4,031 −$6 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$13
politics 40% −$102
sports 16% +$1,302
economics 2% −$6
world 1% +$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $376 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,513 46h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,515 47h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,656 47h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,659 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,356 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,358 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,419 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,421 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,671 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,674 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,506 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,508 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,515 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,518 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,576 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,578 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,512 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,515 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,087 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $84 8d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Athletics 46¢ $57 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,572 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,574 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,665 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,667 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,603 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,605 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $552 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.5% -4.5% 9% 9% -9.5%
≤30d 32 +6.0% -4.1% 16% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 104 -4.4% -13.5% 12% 7% -9.2%
all 153 +3.3% -6.6% 28% 12% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 12% -9.0%
10% -15.5% 11% -17.7%
15% -23.7% 10% -25.6%
20% -31.2% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.90 · official $374.90 (match) · 477 history records