Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3cf…ca0e crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$68 (+8%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$206
other 11% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +34.9% +22.1% 51% 49% -23.8%
≤30d 35 +34.9% +22.1% 51% 49% -23.8%
≤90d 35 +34.9% +22.1% 51% 49% -23.8%
all 35 +34.9% +22.1% 51% 49% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.1% 49% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here +10.4% 46% -31.1%
15% -0.3% 43% -37.7%
20% -10.0% 37% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +68% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$14 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $130 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$13 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$65 +128%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records