Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3d7…0b3f other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,622 (+1%) realized +$1,631 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate24%35W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,108per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$26
14 days−$51
30 days−$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$79
other 40% −$94
sports 9% +$2,154
economics 4% −$2
world 2% +$74
crypto 2% −$488
culture 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -8.1% -16.9% 9% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 87 -15.3% -23.3% 9% 5% -8.8%
all 145 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 15% -8.6%
10% -18.7% 15% -17.4%
15% -26.6% 13% -25.4%
20% -33.8% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,666) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$13 · ×6.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,692
Realized+$1,631
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses35 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)145 / 148
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,108
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,263 $1,262 −$1 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $382 $382 −$0 (-0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $57 $48 −$8 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,724 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,784 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,458 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,485 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,187 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,794 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,693 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $4,014 −$5 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $54 +$79 +146%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,273 −$5 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,542 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $1,365 +$1 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,122 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,817 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 31 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 31 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 30 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,284 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,621 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 22 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,562 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $6,658 −$7 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $71 +$52 +73%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,061 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 07 $1,658 +$1,947 +117%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $4,048 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,877 −$5 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $3,373 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,711 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,360 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,642 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,263 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,278 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,280 3h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,185 34h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,187 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 2d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $382 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,313 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,315 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $944 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $945 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,483 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,486 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $875 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $876 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,690 7d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,693 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,698 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,701 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,168 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,169 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $54 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,678 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,680 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,545 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,547 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,590 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,692.40 · official $1,692.40 (match) · 605 history records