Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3d8…c931 sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$130 (-8%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day65.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$167
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -17.5%
≤30d 80 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -17.5%
≤90d 80 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -17.5%
all 80 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 31% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 28% -25.4%
15% -34.2% 24% -32.6%
20% -40.6% 18% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 55
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day65.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $51 −$14 -28%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $38 −$7 -18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$2 -14%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $11 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $21 +$18 +88%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $52 −$5 -9%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $34 +$16 +48%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $39 −$29 -75%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 −$6 -62%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $65 −$10 -16%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $118 +$18 +16%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $76 +$24 +32%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $121 −$32 -26%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $30 +$20 +69%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $26 +$29 +111%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $14 −$7 -52%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $24 −$10 -42%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 24 $16 −$13 -83%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$3 -29%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $20 −$3 -14%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -22%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +92%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $12 −$3 -22%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $22 −$17 -76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $8 −$2 -23%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $22 −$22 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $17 −$7 -41%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$9 +18%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $19 +$29 +152%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $39 −$21 -53%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $4 −$3 -66%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $12 −$5 -44%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $22 −$11 -50%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$6 -61%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $14 +$10 +69%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$6 -65%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $19 −$5 -25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +153%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 $0 -8%
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $19 +$9 +47%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $4 $0 -8%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $15 −$5 -32%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 22 $5 +$3 +68%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $6 +$5 +82%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 $0 -11%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $18 −$11 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner SELL 9INE 100¢ $10 9m
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 56¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 33¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 39¢ $38 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner SELL 9INE 31¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 61¢ $25 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner SELL 9INE 37¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 51¢ $21 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL GamerLegion 44¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner SELL OG 99¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner BUY OG 52¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 55¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 55¢ $6 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner SELL 9INE 99¢ $45 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 54¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 54¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 54¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 54¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 54¢ $12 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $26 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $24 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 1¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 29¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 29¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 29¢ $8 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner SELL 9INE 14¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records