trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 22 | -78.6% | -80.6% | 14% | 14% | -84.7% |
| ≤30d | 22 | -78.6% | -80.6% | 14% | 14% | -84.7% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -78.6% | -80.6% | 14% | 14% | -84.7% |
| all | 22 | -78.6% | -80.6% | 14% | 14% | -84.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -80.6% | 14% | -84.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -82.5% | 14% | -86.2% |
| 15% | -84.2% | 5% | -87.5% |
| 20% | -85.7% | 0% | -88.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? | No | 0¢ | 1¢ | $31 | $98 | +$67 (+217%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $42 | $19 | −$23 (-54%) |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $18 | $7 | −$11 (-64%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $2 | −$2 (-50%) |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $2 | −$5 (-67%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 83¢ | 84¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 83¢ | 82¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 63¢ | 61¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox | Atlanta Braves | 54¢ | 52¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +33% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? | Jun 24 | $1 | −$1 | -93% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? | Jun 24 | $1 | −$1 | -93% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? | Jun 23 | $3 | −$3 | -93% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? | Jun 23 | $1 | −$1 | -93% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? | Jun 22 | $2 | −$2 | -93% |
| Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $2 | −$1 | -44% |
| Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | -36% |
| Starmer out by June 26, 2026? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? | Jun 22 | $3 | −$3 | -93% |
| Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | +25% |
| Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | +40% |
| Czechia vs. Mexico: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Scotland vs. Brazil: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |