Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3d8…f052 sports 32 markets active 7h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-35%) realized −$78 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$15
sports 11% −$11
other 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-80.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -78.6% -80.6% 14% 14% -84.7%
≤30d 22 -78.6% -80.6% 14% 14% -84.7%
≤90d 22 -78.6% -80.6% 14% 14% -84.7%
all 22 -78.6% -80.6% 14% 14% -84.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.6% 14% -84.7%
10% ← realistic here -82.5% 14% -86.2%
15% -84.2% 5% -87.5%
20% -85.7% 0% -88.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)22 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? No $31 $98 +$67 (+217%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? No $42 $19 −$23 (-54%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? No $18 $7 −$11 (-64%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? No $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? No $7 $2 −$5 (-67%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -93%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $1 $0 -36%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -93%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 22 $1 $0 +25%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $1 $0 +40%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY No $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.51 · official $155.24 · 120 history records