Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3de…111a
world · 120 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$1,559 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,055 · open −$213
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,177
Realized+$2,055
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions45
Markets (closed)75 / 120
History coverage31d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day82.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 45 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$243
14 days+$693
30 days+$2,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $210 $223 +$13 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $232 $221 −$11 (-5%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $186 $188 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 80¢ 81¢ $124 $126 +$2 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 68¢ $80 $101 +$21 (+27%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 47¢ 37¢ $90 $71 −$19 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $63 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $65 $42 −$23 (-35%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+12%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 80¢ 96¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 98¢ 98¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-28%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 72¢ 61¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 58¢ 63¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $276 −$228 -83%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $337 +$210 +62%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $286 +$242 +84%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $51 +$6 +13%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $40 +$8 +21%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $51 +$14 +27%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 -1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $936 +$169 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $573 +$33 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $200 −$65 -33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $12 +$4 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $579 +$412 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,461 −$42 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $700 +$199 +28%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $165 −$40 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $149 −$70 -47%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $58 −$39 -67%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $422 +$62 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $440 −$106 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 29 $12 −$11 -95%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 29 $20 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $52 −$39 -75%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $718 +$17 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $810 +$1,599 +197%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $118 −$6 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $84 +$26 +31%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $48 +$18 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $120 −$55 -46%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $70 +$68 +97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $12 +$2 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $30 −$4 -15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $8 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $418 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $44 −$6 -14%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 22 $7 −$7 -91%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 20 $6 $0 -8%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $116 −$82 -70%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $96 −$15 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 66% +$2,160
politics 12% −$257
crypto 7% +$200
finance 6% −$147
economics 5% −$87
other 3% −$26
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 9m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 34m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $15 38m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 72¢ $21 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 39m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 48m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $15 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $12 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $0 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $15 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $15 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $15 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.4% -6.5% 78% 56% +11.0%
≤30d 74 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 32% +7.9%
≤90d 75 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 33% +7.9%
all 75 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 33% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover82.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 33% +7.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 25% -2.4%
15% -27.6% 17% -11.8%
20% -34.7% 15% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,177.12 · official $2,177.16 (match) · 2607 history records