Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa3de…611e other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 710d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$148 (+1%) realized +$302 · open −$154
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$112
14 days+$158
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$28
sports 11% +$10
politics 3% +$4
crypto 0% +$5
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 19 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 24 -19.9% -27.5% 79% 0% -8.7%
all 53 -29.0% -35.8% 58% 15% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 15% -8.7%
10% -41.9% 13% -17.4%
15% -47.5% 9% -25.4%
20% -52.7% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -43% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$1,426
Realized+$302
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage710d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists No 99¢ 89¢ $1,576 $1,422 −$154 (-10%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kendry Páez: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,577 +$15 +1%
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,578 +$15 +1%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,578 +$15 +1%
Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals Jun 19 $1,578 +$15 +1%
Lukáš Provod: 2+ goals Jun 18 $1,579 +$17 +1%
Rafael Leão: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,577 +$15 +1%
Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ goals Jun 17 $578 +$6 +1%
Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals Jun 16 $578 +$6 +1%
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals Jun 15 $577 +$6 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $584 +$15 +3%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $577 +$6 +1%
Jackson Holliday: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $502 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $502 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $194 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 3 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $310 +$3 +1%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $501 +$6 +1%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 08 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Han Duck-soo? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Feb 04 $444 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $4 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3AM ET Dec 02 $8 +$9 +113%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Jan 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
OR-05 election: Bynum (D) vs. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Nov 29 $1 $0 +1%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals? Nov 08 $1 +$2 +156%
Candidates seated at ABC debate? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kamala Harris solo interview before debate? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Alexandre de Moraes impeached in September? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazilian Judge Moraes arrested in September? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Biden speak at the DNC? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala be Nominee before Convention? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,577 1h
Kendry Páez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,577 11h
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,578 26h
Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,578 36h
Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,578 2d
Lukáš Provod: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,579 3d
Rafael Leão: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,577 3d
Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $578 4d
Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $578 5d
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $577 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $584 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $577 8d
Jackson Holliday: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $502 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $502 10d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Costa Rica? BUY No 99¢ $194 10d
Exact Score: Málaga CF 3 - 3 UD Las Palmas? BUY No 99¢ $310 11d
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $501 12d
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 99¢ $198 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 75d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 91¢ $454 136d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 89¢ $444 148d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $5 191d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $4 195d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Team Falcons (BO1) BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $3 198d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) BUY Astralis 55¢ $15 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,425.90 · official $1,425.90 (match) · 119 history records