Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3de…ee7f crypto 112 markets active 1d ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,356 (-17%) realized −$1,356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%45W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days+$410
14 days+$115
30 days+$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$486
other 20% −$1,106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +17.0% +5.8% 44% 44% +8.6%
≤30d 88 +15.8% +4.8% 44% 44% +4.8%
≤90d 109 +6.2% -3.9% 41% 41% -15.3%
all 111 +4.7% -5.3% 41% 41% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 41% -28.4%
10% -14.3% 41% -35.2%
15% -22.6% 40% -41.5%
20% -30.2% 40% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$57 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses45 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage178d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$145 +681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$45 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$205 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $63 +$34 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$37 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$60 +566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$28 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$37 +269%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $93 +$101 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$35 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$35 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$14 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$33 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$29 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$34 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$33 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$26 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 35h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 55¢ $241 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records