Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A3 0xa3df…6f87 world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$43,499 (-31%) realized −$43,264 · open −$235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 40L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$2,288per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$632est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$14,697
sports 16% −$8,218
other 2% −$1,464
finance 2% −$593
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +20.1% +8.6% 50% 50% +21.2%
≤30d 12 -34.6% -40.8% 25% 17% -49.8%
≤90d 44 -20.7% -28.3% 25% 16% -11.6%
all 60 -12.3% -20.6% 33% 23% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 23% -5.6%
10% -28.2% 18% -14.6%
15% ← realistic here -35.2% 13% -22.9%
20% -41.5% 12% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,607) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
30.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,739 vs −$1,253 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$43,264
Unrealized−$235
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$632
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$2,288
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $307 $72 −$235 (-77%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $67 −$13 -20%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $139 +$83 +60%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $2,882 +$421 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $184 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $574 −$249 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $146 −$35 -24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 10 $12,632 −$7,442 -59%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 10 $42,334 −$18,902 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $468 −$301 -64%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $323 −$267 -83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $569 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $2,435 −$1,375 -56%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,607 −$78 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 21 $414 −$41 -10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $941 −$276 -29%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $17,701 −$6,767 -38%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $224 −$224 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 17 $104 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $396 −$301 -76%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $8,359 −$3,719 -44%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $541 −$541 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $2,043 −$1,962 -96%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $150 −$45 -30%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $1,305 −$236 -18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 14 $3,457 +$752 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 13 $2,358 +$140 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 13 $1,100 −$750 -68%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 13 $169 −$58 -34%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 12 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $6,504 +$42,235 +649%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $102 +$11 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $59 +$34 +58%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 05 $2,306 −$302 -13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 04 $659 −$25 -4%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $304 +$196 +64%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 31 $2,825 −$1,726 -61%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $258 −$161 -63%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Mar 24 $324 −$85 -26%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 24 $473 −$333 -70%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 24 $422 −$109 -26%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 21 $2,876 −$1,570 -55%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 13 $137 −$22 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 13 $334 +$83 +25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 10 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $478 −$323 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 53m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 55m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $29 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 6h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.96 · official $98.96 (match) · 3500 history records