Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3e0…095d crypto 649 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1172 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72,020 (+169%) realized +$72,020 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%366W / 590L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1171.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8,174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1172 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 956 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 32% -11.9%
≤30d 956 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 32% -11.9%
≤90d 956 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 32% -11.9%
all 956 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 32% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1171.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 32% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 25% -20.3%
15% -47.2% 19% -28.0%
20% -52.4% 14% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -99% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$22 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$72,020
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses366 / 590
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)956 / 649
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1171.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 956 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $77 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $85 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $9 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $24 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $14 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records