Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3e2…902f world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$2
finance 13% +$20
other 11% −$19
crypto 1% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 25% -3.4%
≤30d 9 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 11% -8.2%
≤90d 26 -7.5% -16.3% 27% 4% -9.5%
all 26 -7.5% -16.3% 27% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 4% -9.5%
10% -24.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Open positions7
Markets (closed)26 / 33
History coverage42d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $100 +$7 +6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $130 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $220 +$20 +9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $110 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $475 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $195 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $130 −$14 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 22 $90 −$12 -13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 22 $50 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 18 $11 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $5 $0 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 18 $10 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 92¢ $105 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $107 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $100 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $133 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $130 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $129 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 15d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $110 15d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $111 15d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $110 17d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $110 17d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $110 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $118 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $120 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $123 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $120 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $118 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $120 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.82 · official $148.82 (match) · 86 history records