Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3e4…ca09 other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,064 (-2%) realized −$1,959 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate65%58W / 31L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,161per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days−$6
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$65
crypto 29% −$2,178
tech 14% +$360
politics 12% −$37
sports 3% +$122
finance 2% +$36
world 1% $0
culture 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.7% -20.1% 67% 33% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +35.6% +22.7% 70% 40% -8.8%
≤90d 22 +9.1% -1.3% 68% 32% -9.6%
all 89 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 20% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 20% -11.0%
10% -22.6% 10% -19.5%
15% -30.1% 7% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,142) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$186 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$1,959
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses58 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage267d
Avg bet$1,161
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makina FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 57¢ 4¢ $114 $7 −$107 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $355 +$119 +34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $410 +$84 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $190 +$4 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $199 −$109 -55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $137 +$24 +17%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $56 −$24 -42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $641 +$67 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $502 +$39 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 −$210 -99%
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 16 $6 +$27 +461%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 21 $294 −$291 -99%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 12 $512 −$252 -49%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 11 $494 +$88 +18%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 05 $150 −$69 -46%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 04 $334 +$74 +22%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $396 +$350 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $32 −$16 -50%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 21 $1,011 +$14 +1%
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 16 $1,492 +$7 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 02 $560 +$35 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $989 +$3 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 28 $822 +$29 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 25 $337 +$4 +1%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Feb 16 $133 +$15 +11%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $245 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 9? Feb 09 $200 −$199 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $1,060 −$396 -37%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $249 +$36 +14%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Feb 01 $79 −$79 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 01 $832 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $852 −$10 -1%
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 18 $510 −$315 -62%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 12 $4 $0 +0%
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 11 $2,216 +$84 +4%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 11 $713 +$287 +40%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 08 $450 −$274 -61%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 01 $124 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $1,276 +$4 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025? Dec 31 $321 +$194 +61%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 27 $750 +$200 +27%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 27 $316 −$3 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 24? Dec 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $612 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $565 +$50 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $1,423 −$93 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8? Dec 08 $484 +$114 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 8 Dec 08 $1,154 +$99 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 8 Dec 08 $2,723 −$55 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 7? Dec 07 $1,182 +$104 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $115 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $474 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $355 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $494 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $251 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $159 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $174 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $190 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $0 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $69 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $20 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $199 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $161 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 33¢ $32 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $141 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $529 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $33 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $56 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $641 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 58¢ $286 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $249 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 51¢ $196 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 51¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 51¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.83 · official $16.83 (match) · 1030 history records