Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3e5…00b1
sports · 228 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$138 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$154 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses107 / 118
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)225 / 228
History coverage166d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 3 History 225 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$15
14 days−$196
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$11 +535%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +46%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Benin vs. Niger: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 +$3 +303%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +222%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $3 +$6 +188%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Malaysia vs China Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$106
other 13% −$57
crypto 2% −$18
politics 1% +$6
world 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 31h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 32h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 7d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +103.1% +83.7% 89% 89% +105.3%
≤30d 139 -27.4% -34.3% 38% 34% -31.9%
≤90d 157 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 39% -25.7%
all 225 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 38% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 38% -18.0%
10% -24.4% 29% -25.8%
15% -31.7% 22% -33.0%
20% -38.4% 17% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 536 history records