trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -32.3% | -38.7% | 33% | 0% | -28.5% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -22.9% | -30.3% | 44% | 17% | -6.4% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -15.7% | -23.8% | 52% | 26% | -6.1% |
| all | 23 | -15.7% | -23.8% | 52% | 26% | -6.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.8% | 26% | -6.1% |
| 10% | -31.1% | 4% | -15.1% |
| 15% | -37.7% | 4% | -23.3% |
| 20% | -43.8% | 4% | -30.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $237 | $237 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 97¢ | $165 | $175 | +$10 (+6%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 46¢ | 46¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Donald Trump visit Washington in 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 32¢ | $25 | $28 | +$3 (+13%) |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 7¢ | $12 | $2 | −$10 (-81%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 25 | $300 | −$5 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? | Jun 21 | $401 | −$196 | -49% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? | Jun 20 | $401 | +$12 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 17 | $500 | +$5 | +1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 15 | $1,560 | −$53 | -3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Jun 15 | $549 | +$52 | +9% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 15 | $650 | +$87 | +13% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 15 | $438 | +$49 | +11% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 15 | $550 | +$47 | +9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? | Jun 14 | $41 | −$39 | -97% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 14 | $1,142 | −$27 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? | Jun 14 | $16 | −$15 | -96% |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | Jun 13 | $250 | +$424 | +170% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 11 | $7 | +$1 | +9% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $130 | −$42 | -32% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? | Jun 08 | $23 | −$23 | -98% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | Jun 07 | $324 | −$240 | -74% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $43 | −$41 | -96% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | May 27 | $700 | −$5 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $540 | +$60 | +11% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $12 | +$2 | +14% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 24 | $100 | +$19 | +19% |
| Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $6 | $0 | +8% |