Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa3ee…9fcd politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$6
politics 33% −$5
sports 9% −$2
world 9% −$1
crypto 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$820) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage81d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $960 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $857 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 13 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $806 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 12 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $820 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 12 $804 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 04 $147 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $139 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Mar 30 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $958 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $937 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,061 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 2h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $704 2h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $260 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $965 2h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 24h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,016 24h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 24h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $970 24h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 24h
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 24h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 25h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $699 25h
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 25h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $220 25h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $921 26h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $69 33d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 33d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 33d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records