Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:30:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f0…5cd7 weather 875 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,153 (+16%) realized +$1,115 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%74W / 536L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day106.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$948
14 days+$1,226
30 days+$1,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,814
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +49.6% +35.4% 18% 10% +10.1%
≤30d 608 +19.3% +7.9% 12% 9% +3.5%
≤90d 610 +19.7% +8.3% 12% 9% +3.7%
all 610 +19.7% +8.3% 12% 9% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 9% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 9% -6.2%
15% -11.5% 9% -15.3%
20% -20.2% 7% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$3 · ×16.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized+$1,115
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses74 / 536
Open positions24
Markets (closed)610 / 875
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day106.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 610 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 38¢ $3 $45 +$42 (+1404%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or below on June 29? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $3 $34 +$31 (+890%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 29? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+94%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 29? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 29? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 28? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 29? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 475 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 +$32 +3233%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 +$30 +1011%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 28 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 Jun 27 $8 +$106 +1350%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 27 Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 52m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29 BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.01 · official $416.01 (match) · 3464 history records