Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa3f0…9384 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$845 (+3%) realized +$934 · open −$89
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%54W / 78L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$426est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days+$374
14 days−$398
30 days+$2,092
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$908
other 2% −$505
world 1% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +25.3% +13.4% 69% 62% -2.6%
≤30d 68 +1.2% -8.4% 49% 47% +0.1%
≤90d 132 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 40% -7.9%
all 132 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 40% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -7.9%
10% -25.0% 36% -16.7%
15% -32.3% 33% -24.8%
20% -38.9% 29% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$164 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$934
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses54 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$426
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage60d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Chivas Esports 32¢ 30¢ $190 $176 −$14 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 34¢ 18¢ $152 $78 −$74 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 17 $241 −$240 -100%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $191 −$188 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $131 +$451 +344%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $900 −$153 -17%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 11 $255 −$250 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 11 $191 +$114 +60%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $183 +$278 +152%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Radek Chodora vs Marvin Moeller Jun 11 $151 +$21 +14%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $192 −$188 -98%
Gibraltar vs. Kosovo: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $50 +$23 +46%
Israel vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $301 +$35 +12%
ITF Hurghada: Abhilasha Bista vs Lamis Alhussein Abdel Aziz Jun 10 $151 +$23 +15%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $462 +$55 +12%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $1,424 +$367 +26%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) Jun 10 $17 +$24 +140%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $173 +$419 +243%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $161 −$158 -98%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs OLDBOYS- - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $129 −$126 -98%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $608 −$49 -8%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $106 +$75 +70%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $113 −$110 -97%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 06 $191 +$124 +65%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $363 +$211 +58%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 05 $650 −$636 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $192 −$190 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $395 +$216 +55%
Centurion 2 (Doubles): Azkara/Duran vs Montsi/Schalkwyk Jun 05 $203 −$200 -98%
Birmingham (Doubles): Chandrasekar/Yuzuki vs Hidalgo/Trhac Jun 05 $1,076 −$1,063 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $196 −$194 -99%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs paiN Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Jun 05 $159 +$338 +212%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $704 +$495 +70%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1,810 +$421 +23%
Map Handicap: SRG (-1.5) vs Ghost Gaming GC (+1.5) Jun 03 $131 −$129 -98%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $181 +$150 +83%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 01 $52 +$203 +388%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $361 +$580 +161%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 28 $34 +$22 +65%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs TLN Pirates (+2.5) May 28 $122 +$76 +62%
Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Gr May 28 $16 −$16 -98%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G May 28 $338 −$334 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff May 28 $228 +$305 +134%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North Americ May 28 $382 +$258 +68%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs SemperFi Esports (BO5) - ESL Challenger Leagu May 28 $72 −$70 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $303 −$298 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $102 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 33¢ $92 1h
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa BUY Mayuka Aikawa 93¢ $241 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $104 15h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 37¢ $51 18h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 41¢ $191 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 22¢ $131 3d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 59¢ $424 5d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 60¢ $476 5d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 48¢ $51 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 34¢ $255 5d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 39¢ $183 6d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) BUY G2 NORD 62¢ $191 6d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 35¢ $192 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) BUY Global Esports 41¢ $17 8d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Radek Chodora vs Marvin Moeller BUY Marvin Moeller 88¢ $151 8d
ITF Hurghada: Abhilasha Bista vs Lamis Alhussein Abdel Aziz BUY Lamis Alhussein Abdel Aziz 86¢ $151 8d
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 89¢ $462 8d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner BUY AaB Bulls 31¢ $31 8d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner BUY AaB Bulls 28¢ $142 8d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY AaB Bulls 27¢ $161 8d
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs OLDBOYS- - Map 2 Winner BUY RoundsGG 16¢ $129 8d
Gibraltar vs. Kosovo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $50 9d
Israel vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $301 9d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 49¢ $36 9d
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 79¢ $1,424 9d
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 54¢ $608 9d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes $103 9d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes $103 9d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.22 · official $253.22 (match) · 250 history records