Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f1…bd50 crypto 957 markets active 6d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-1%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%437W / 655L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day258.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,996
7 days−$1,945
14 days−$1,126
30 days−$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 569 -53.1% -57.6% 16% 15% -63.6%
≤30d 1092 -11.4% -19.9% 40% 36% -15.6%
≤90d 1092 -11.4% -19.9% 40% 36% -15.6%
all 1092 -11.4% -19.9% 40% 36% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover258.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 36% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 31% -23.7%
15% -34.5% 30% -31.1%
20% -40.9% 28% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses437 / 655
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1092 / 957
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day258.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1092 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records