Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f2…68f9 other 70 markets active 3h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-11%) realized −$100 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%20W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$46
14 days−$38
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$21
sports 38% −$88
world 3% −$17
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -16.9% -24.8% 26% 26% -17.7%
≤30d 50 -19.2% -26.9% 28% 26% -18.1%
≤90d 67 -22.4% -29.8% 30% 28% -23.5%
all 67 -22.4% -29.8% 30% 28% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 28% -23.5%
10% -36.5% 25% -30.8%
15% -42.6% 22% -37.5%
20% -48.3% 13% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 47
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage34d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 +$16 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$9 -55%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$21 +78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$6 -28%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$11 +33%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -14%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -10%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$17 -57%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$10 -65%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$10 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 −$10 -28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$20 +162%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$21 +94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $23 −$8 -33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$12 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 −$2 -30%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $11 −$5 -49%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 11 $11 −$1 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs May 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $15 −$12 -80%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Julia Riera May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Jessica Bouzas Man May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 21 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $21 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.37 · official $39.37 (match) · 152 history records