Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f4…ec7b crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-6%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day133.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -31.6% -38.1% 41% 33% -24.1%
≤30d 39 -31.6% -38.1% 41% 33% -24.1%
≤90d 39 -31.6% -38.1% 41% 33% -24.1%
all 39 -31.6% -38.1% 41% 33% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.1% 33% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -44.0% 28% -31.3%
15% -49.5% 18% -38.0%
20% -54.4% 10% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day133.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $77 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $122 −$116 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$37 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$73 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$55 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $28 −$21 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $45 −$19 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $32 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$13 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records