Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa3f5…42ca sports 90 markets active 3h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$255 (-2%) realized −$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate73%66W / 24L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$860
14 days−$17
30 days−$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$371
other 6% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -21.4% -28.9% 62% 54% -22.5%
≤30d 90 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 59% -10.7%
≤90d 90 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 59% -10.7%
all 90 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 59% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 59% -10.7%
10% -22.4% 18% -19.3%
15% -29.9% 13% -27.1%
20% -36.8% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$108 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses66 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage27d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $77 −$76 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $67 +$11 +16%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $34 +$6 +18%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 23 $67 +$8 +12%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 22 $85 +$11 +13%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $74 +$12 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $66 +$7 +11%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $66 +$13 +20%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +21%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 19 $995 −$994 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $210 +$390 +186%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $526 +$83 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $500 +$26 +5%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 18 $442 +$58 +13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $399 +$43 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$81 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $466 −$363 -78%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $862 +$184 +21%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $778 +$84 +11%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 17 $698 +$77 +11%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $621 +$77 +12%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 16 $560 +$62 +11%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 16 $499 +$61 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $705 +$59 +8%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 15 $342 +$58 +17%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $593 +$52 +9%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 14 $534 +$59 +11%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $482 +$53 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $445 +$38 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $400 +$44 +11%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $352 +$48 +14%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $336 +$17 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $288 +$48 +17%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 11 $253 +$34 +13%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $228 +$25 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $198 +$31 +16%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 11 $174 +$23 +14%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $107 +$41 +39%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $149 −$148 -99%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 10 $135 +$14 +10%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 10 $123 +$12 +10%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 09 $101 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 12¢ $1 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 1¢ $1 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 91¢ $77 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $67 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 100¢ $40 13h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $27 14h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY NC Dinos 69¢ $5 16h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY NC Dinos 69¢ $11 16h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 93¢ $25 16h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 85¢ $8 17h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 85¢ $8 17h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 85¢ $8 17h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 85¢ $8 17h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 89¢ $67 24h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 94¢ $96 2d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $96 2d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 88¢ $85 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $85 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 86¢ $74 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $66 2d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 73¢ $35 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 73¢ $22 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 73¢ $8 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 73¢ $13 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $66 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 55¢ $4 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 55¢ $4 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 5d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) SELL St. Louis Cardinals 1¢ $1 5d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 90¢ $995 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records