Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa3f6…c76c weather 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,153 (+3%) realized +$3,153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate97%234W / 8L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$699
14 days+$1,098
30 days+$2,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,040
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +5.4% -4.6% 100% 10% -4.7%
≤30d 208 +2.5% -7.3% 98% 5% -6.4%
≤90d 242 +3.7% -6.2% 97% 7% -6.5%
all 242 +3.7% -6.2% 97% 7% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 7% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 4% -15.4%
15% -23.4% 2% -23.6%
20% -30.9% 1% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×15.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×455.59 per $1 lost it wins $455.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses234 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage47d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $413 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $651 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $289 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $603 +$113 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $402 +$33 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $959 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $74 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $73 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $388 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $191 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $477 +$112 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $215 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $565 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $254 +$270 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $253 +$64 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $129 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $306 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $334 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $564 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $510 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $664 +$12 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $91 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3,171 +$26 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $340 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $260 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $162 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $194 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $709 +$18 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,741 +$102 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 09 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 8? Jun 08 $330 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $208 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $216 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $71 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $273 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $652 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $651 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $289 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $135 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $24 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $265 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $135 10h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $345 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $372 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $68 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $37 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 26¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $141 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $194 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $111 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 43¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 45¢ $29 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $91 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1432 history records