Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f6…6e60 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$12
other 21% +$8
politics 11% +$2
culture 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% −$2
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -1.7% -11.0% 15% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 13 -1.7% -11.0% 15% 0% -11.2%
all 62 -0.4% -9.9% 37% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 8% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage303d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $61 −$13 -22%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $99 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $19 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $36 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $96 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $55 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 24 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $8 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $9 +$3 +27%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $22 +$6 +25%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $7 $0 +6%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will the blue bloc win less than 72 seats in the Norwegian election? Sep 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Sep 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -5%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Aug 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 3h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $57 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $57 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $42 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $5 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $15 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $22 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $56 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $56 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $25 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $57 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $57 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $5 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $11 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $4 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $19 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $56 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records