Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f7…1a98 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$4 (-17%) realized −$1 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$1
sports 30% $0
other 30% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -43.4% -48.8% 50% 50% -20.8%
≤30d 2 -43.4% -48.8% 50% 50% -20.8%
≤90d 2 -43.4% -48.8% 50% 50% -20.8%
all 2 -43.4% -48.8% 50% 50% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 50% -20.8%
10% -53.7% 0% -28.4%
15% -58.2% 0% -35.3%
20% -62.3% 0% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 37m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.65 · official $8.65 (match) · 10 history records