Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa3f9…a7c9 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+1%) realized +$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%90W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$12
14 days+$22
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 36 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 83 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 92 +1.3% -8.4% 98% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 1% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×39.31 per $1 lost it wins $39.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses90 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage100d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $167 $166 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $165 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $158 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $156 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $152 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $116 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $140 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $82 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $77 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 09 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 08 $69 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 07 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $68 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $167 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $165 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $158 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $157 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $156 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $156 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $152 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $152 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $150 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $150 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $50 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $97 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $50 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 96¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $4 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $100 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $40 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $100 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 98¢ $40 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $140 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $90 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $90 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $88 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $56 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY No 96¢ $30 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $56 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.23 · official $166.23 (match) · 188 history records